Articles

All Eyes Are On The Yield Curve

July 17, 2018 - 6 min read

This will not be an economic treatise on the current shape of the yield curve, nor on the prognosis nor probability of a recession.  There have been more than enough articles written in recent months (and more surely to come) opining on the continued flattening of the curve as short rates have moved higher with…

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Caldwell earns American Bankers Association’s CAFP designation

July 16, 2018 - 1 min read

Kathleen Caldwell, a Vice President in ProBank Austin’s BSA/AML practice, has earned the industry designation of Certified AML and Fraud Professional (CAFP) by the American Bankers Association (ABA).  This designation recognizes Kathleen’s proven knowledge in AML program design and governance, regulatory requirements, detection, prevention and reporting, and understanding of existing and emerging money laundering and…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

July 2, 2018 - 1 min read

The risks of an expanding trade war is overwhelming the economic fundamentals Investors are paying attention to the economic data but are focused on the looming trade war. Stock prices have been declining and bond prices have been rising as capital flows from stocks into bonds. The imposition of tariffs will result in slower economic…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

June 25, 2018 - 2 min read

The yield curve flattened further last week as the risk of a spreading trade war is driving prices The economic data continues to come in above expectations and well above the level of the first quarter. None of this data is driving financial markets. Investors are more concerned about the escalating trade war that has…

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Quarterly Earnings Guidance: Benefit or Burden?

June 20, 2018 - 6 min read

I’m thinking that coming off the Fed meeting last week, the last thing you need or want is to read the 80th-odd treatise on the recent rate hike, and another analyst pontificating on inflation, unemployment, the shape of the yield curve, etc.  Quite simply, the recent increase to the Fed’s benchmark rate, coupled with Chairman…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

June 18, 2018 - 2 min read

The Fed became more hawkish with last week’s moves. The FOMC did more than just raise managed rates last week. In addition to the 25 basis point increase in the target rate for Fed Funds, they also made significant changes in other areas. They changed theirguidance for future moves from three increases in 2018 to…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

June 11, 2018 - 2 min read

The Fed meets with cross currents of strong data, but trade wars looming in the future. The Fed meets this week with the meeting followed by the press conference with the Chairman. The Fed will also release its latest economic and inflation forecasts. The strong consensus calls for the second managed interest rate increase this…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

June 4, 2018 - 1 min read

Volatility in financial markets from problems in Italy and tariffs masked the strong economic data. The data continues to get better and better. Last week was headlined by the labor market report. Job growth at 223,000 was well above expectations and the monthly average of the first four months of the year. The growth in the labor force has…

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Using a Closing Disclosure to Reset Tolerance

June 1, 2018 - 1 min read

(CFPB Revises TRID to Remove the “Black Hole”) Effective June 1, 2018 The Truth-in-Lending/RESPA integrated disclosure (TRID) rule requires creditors to provide consumers with good faith estimates of the loan terms and closing costs on a Loan Estimate. Under the rule, an estimated closing cost is disclosed in good faith if the charge paid by…

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