Inflation data from last week was lower than the huge increases in March. The Fed is between a rock and a hard place. They no longer have confidence in their forecasts as they have been wrong consistently for the past two years. They are at a point where they are going to need hard evidence…
read article →The Fed did raise rates as expected but limited further moves to 50 basis points. Capital markets are always driven by one of three emotions. It is either greed (an overpriced market), fear (an underpriced market) or apathy (fair value). These emotions are a function of investors’ views of the future economic fundamentals. Currently, the…
read article →The FOMC is expected to move more aggressively this week. The FOMC meets this week with expectations they will continue the process of changing monetary policy. They are forecast to raise managed rates by 50 basis points and announce the speed and timing of shrinking their balance sheet. This easing of accommodative policy is being…
read article →The wealth of economic data due out this week will impact forecasts going forward. Many forecasters believe the inflation is peaking and will begin to moderate in the coming months. This forecast is based on a slowing of real consumption spending as inflation reduces the real spending by both consumers and corporations. They also believe…
read article →Inflation data was huge, but we expect it to represent a peak in the data. Market interest rates moved much higher last week as the inflation data for March surged again. That data does mean the Fed will move managed rates up a full 50 basis points at their meeting the first week in May….
read article →The inversion in the curve was eliminated with the news from last week. The bond market was driven by comments made by Fed members and the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. The tone of the speeches made last week by five Fed governors was very hawkish. Strong indications of a 50-basis…
read article →The interest rate curve has inverted but we do not forecast a recession will follow. Many forecasters have placed great significance on the inversion of the yield curve last week. The inversion was between intermediate and longer-term bonds. The yield on the two-year ended the week at a 2.44% yield while the ten-year ended at…
read article →Competition for commercial loans has been incredibly intense as community banks, regional banks, credit unions and fintechs battle to expand their commercial loan portfolios in a low demand, high liquidity environment. Now, the Federal Reserve has announced its intention to raise rates another six times this year after making its first twenty-five basis point increase…
read article →Fed members’ speeches drove market interest rates higher last week. Investors reacted to several speeches delivered last week by Fed members. The speeches included one from Chairman Powell where he was more hawkish about the future course of monetary policy. The possibility of a 50 basis point move up at the May FOMC meeting jumped…
read article →Inflation pressures will remain high with the rise in commodity markets from the war. The FOMC did raise the Funds rate by 25 basis points last week. More importantly, since they had already signaled the move, the focus was the revised forecasts they issued. The median dot plot from the individual members of the committee…
read article →Status: Pending Lead Advisor: Craig Mancinotti
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