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ProBank Austin Advisor

September 17, 2018 - 1 min read

Market rates rose last week even as the data came in below forecasts  The yield on the ten-year treasury ended last week at 3.0%. The rise to this level has occurred three times this year only to back off to well below this barrier. The rise took place even as the August inflation data was below prior months and…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

September 10, 2018 - 1 min read

Economic data released last week was strong with rising inflation risks affecting markets Any doubts as to whether the surge in consumption reported for the second quarter can continue in the third quarter is quickly being eliminated with data being released. The labor market report for August reported last Friday was a solid number. It…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

August 27, 2018 - 1 min read

Domestic economic fundamentals continued strong at the start of the third quarter The data due out this week will contribute to the determination of the sustainability of the business expansion . The risk has been whether the strong growth of the second quarter of this year can continue into the third quarter. There have been three quarters…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

August 20, 2018 - 1 min read

Risks to financial markets were reduced last week The concern by investors has been twofold in the last month. First, the risk that the economy was going to slow from the strong second quarter growth was reduced last week with the release of July retail sales . Overall, sales were reported as having increased by…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

August 13, 2018 - 1 min read

The fiscal stimulus of tax cuts are being undermined by the uncertainty of a trade war Investors continue to focus on the negative impact of the developing trade war as opposed to the strong economic growth data being released. The yield on the ten-year treasury has backed down from 3% two weeks ago to close last week at 2.86%….

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ProBank Austin Advisor

August 6, 2018 - 1 min read

All of the data released last week strengthens the probability of a rate increase in September The wealth of data released last week continues to point to a strong rebound in growth still in place. The labor market remains tight even with nonfarm payroll growth in July at 157,000, well below the results of May…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

July 31, 2018 - 1 min read

Real GDP came in as expected while the components indicate a strong recovery will continue The headline number for second quarter economic growth came as expected but for much different reasons than forecast. The Advance Report for Real GDP resulted in 4.1% growth over the first quarter with the consensus forecast calling for 4.2%. This…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

July 23, 2018 - 1 min read

Second quarter Real GDP to be released this week should confirm the strength of monthly data Another set of solid economic data was recorded last week. Retail sales were reported as having increased by 0.5% in June. That follows a revised 1.3% growth in May. The upward revision for May means personal consumption growth in…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

July 2, 2018 - 1 min read

The risks of an expanding trade war is overwhelming the economic fundamentals Investors are paying attention to the economic data but are focused on the looming trade war. Stock prices have been declining and bond prices have been rising as capital flows from stocks into bonds. The imposition of tariffs will result in slower economic…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

June 25, 2018 - 2 min read

The yield curve flattened further last week as the risk of a spreading trade war is driving prices The economic data continues to come in above expectations and well above the level of the first quarter. None of this data is driving financial markets. Investors are more concerned about the escalating trade war that has…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

June 18, 2018 - 2 min read

The Fed became more hawkish with last week’s moves. The FOMC did more than just raise managed rates last week. In addition to the 25 basis point increase in the target rate for Fed Funds, they also made significant changes in other areas. They changed theirguidance for future moves from three increases in 2018 to…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

June 11, 2018 - 2 min read

The Fed meets with cross currents of strong data, but trade wars looming in the future. The Fed meets this week with the meeting followed by the press conference with the Chairman. The Fed will also release its latest economic and inflation forecasts. The strong consensus calls for the second managed interest rate increase this…

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