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ProBank Austin Advisor

September 9, 2019 - 1 min read

The labor market report for August was mixed with slower job growth but higher wages. The always important labor report released last Friday was a mixed bag. Nonfarm payrolls only increased by 130,000 in August aided by a 25,000 increase in government workers as census workers were included. In addition, the job growth data for…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

September 3, 2019 - 1 min read

The inverted yield curve has only gotten wider as fears of recession grow. Another week of solid economic data, volatile stock markets and declines in market interest rates. The trade war with China continues to drive investors towards an expectation of recession as a result of tariffs and weak global growth. As yet, those fears…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

August 26, 2019 - 1 min read

The bond market continues to price another Fed cut in September. Investors continue to focus on the waves of news on the trade war. Fed Chairman Powell gave his annual speech to the Jackson Hole economic forum on Friday. He indicated the U.S. economy is in good condition with growth accelerating on the strength of…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

August 19, 2019 - 1 min read

Retail sales were much stronger than expected for July calling into question a recession. If the Federal Reserve is truly data dependent as they said they were after the rate cut in July, the retail sales data released last week would keep them on hold in September. The headline number was +0.7% for the month,…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

August 12, 2019 - 1 min read

Retail sales for July due out this Thursday will be a key data point for monetary policy. Volatility in financial markets continues to be stoked by a lack of progress on trade agreements,political instability in China and fears of a slowing economy. Global economic growth is slowing with few tools remaining to stimulate in Europe…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

August 5, 2019 - 1 min read

The question coming out of last week’s FOMC move; is this a one-and-done action? The Fed abandoned its long stated position of being data dependent for any change in monetary policy early this year. That change culminated in the cut in the target rate for Fed Funds of 25 basis points last week. The move…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

July 29, 2019 - 1 min read

The Fed will cut managed rates by 25 basis points even as economic data reflects strength. The FOMC meets this week with everyone expecting a cut of 25 basis points in managed rates. Investors will be very disappointed if the Fed does not move. The Fed does not like to surprise financial markets and have…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

July 22, 2019 - 1 min read

Economic data continues to be reported reflecting a solid condition in the U.S. The Fed has abandoned the position of being data dependent and is caving to political and financial pressures to change monetary policy. The data being released does not support lowering managed interest rates. Retail sales for June, the last month of the…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

July 15, 2019 - 1 min read

The last chance to guide markets to no change was last week and the Fed passed. Fed Chairman Powell provided his semi-annual report to Congress on the condition of the U.S. economy and the outlook for monetary policy. The entire two days of testimony can be summed up by one word: uncertainty. He used this…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

July 8, 2019 - 1 min read

Now what does the Fed do after a much stronger jobs report for June? The Fed finds itself with a real dilemma. Wall Street is expecting and even demanding a cut in managed rates at the next FOMC meeting at the end of July. The fear is the U.S. economy is slowing due to the…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

July 1, 2019 - 1 min read

The divergence in economic data is driving the bond and stock markets. The divergence in capital markets mirrors the divergence in economic data. Consumer confidence was down from above 130 on the Conference Board’s index in May and remained at the low level of 121.5 in June. At the same time, personal spending and incomes…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

June 17, 2019 - 1 min read

The FOMC meets this week with widespread expectations of a rate cut. The Federal Open Market Committee meets this week with the bond market already pricing in a cut in managed rates. We do not believe that will happen. The key data piece was released last Friday. Retail sales were up 0.5% for the month…

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