Articles

ProBank Austin Advisor

November 13, 2018 - 1 min read

The elections created a split Congress which should produce gridlock. The mid-term elections did nothing to resolve the direction of future fiscal policy . It did create an environment of gridlock in Washington. Financial markets generally like gridlock since it produces no change in current policies . At least corporations can make decisions within the…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

November 12, 2018 - 1 min read

A strong jobs report is just another piece of evidence of continued solid growth in 2019. The FOMC meets this week as economic data remains strong, inflation remains low and the uncertainty of trade wars loom. These cross currents cause a wide range of forecasts for both the economy and possible timing of Fed actions….

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ProBank Austin Advisor

October 30, 2018 - 1 min read

Third quarter estimates of economic activity came in better than expected. The estimated growth in the third quarter came in above expectations. The Advance Report , subject to large change with more complete data, was released at 3.5%. This follows the 4.2% growth reported for the second quarter. The two quarters together represent the best…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

October 16, 2018 - 1 min read

Short term volatility is a result of instant news and analysis, not a change in fundamentals. We live in a world with instant news and analysis. The news cycle is short, as events have only a short term impact. This compresses volatility into larger moves in financial asset pricing over shorter time periods. We experienced…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

October 10, 2018 - 1 min read

The yield curve has steepened modestly as long rates moved up more than the short end. Lost in all the attention paid to the political circus of the Supreme Court hearings was the solid economic data and the trade agreement with Mexico and Canada. The employment report for September was another indication of the tight…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

October 1, 2018 - 1 min read

Market rates have moved higher and the yield on the ten-year is holding above 3% As widely expected, the Fed raised the target rate for Fed Funds by 25 basis points at their September FOMC meeting. They also released the latest economic, inflation and monetary policy guidance for the next three years. The guidance for…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

September 25, 2018 - 1 min read

Intermediate and long-term market rates have begun to move up as the Fed meets The Fed meets this week with a strong consensus forecast of another increase in managed rates. The FOMC is expected to raise the target rate for Fed Funds by 25 basis points to 2.0-2.25% on Wednesday. This is a meeting which…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

September 17, 2018 - 1 min read

Market rates rose last week even as the data came in below forecasts  The yield on the ten-year treasury ended last week at 3.0%. The rise to this level has occurred three times this year only to back off to well below this barrier. The rise took place even as the August inflation data was below prior months and…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

September 10, 2018 - 1 min read

Economic data released last week was strong with rising inflation risks affecting markets Any doubts as to whether the surge in consumption reported for the second quarter can continue in the third quarter is quickly being eliminated with data being released. The labor market report for August reported last Friday was a solid number. It…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

August 27, 2018 - 1 min read

Domestic economic fundamentals continued strong at the start of the third quarter The data due out this week will contribute to the determination of the sustainability of the business expansion . The risk has been whether the strong growth of the second quarter of this year can continue into the third quarter. There have been three quarters…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

August 20, 2018 - 1 min read

Risks to financial markets were reduced last week The concern by investors has been twofold in the last month. First, the risk that the economy was going to slow from the strong second quarter growth was reduced last week with the release of July retail sales . Overall, sales were reported as having increased by…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

August 13, 2018 - 1 min read

The fiscal stimulus of tax cuts are being undermined by the uncertainty of a trade war Investors continue to focus on the negative impact of the developing trade war as opposed to the strong economic growth data being released. The yield on the ten-year treasury has backed down from 3% two weeks ago to close last week at 2.86%….

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