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ProBank Austin Advisor

June 28, 2022 - 1 min read

Investors fear a recession but the data does not signal that yet. Volatility in financial markets does go both ways. Stock prices moved higher last week, bouncing off cyclical lows and market interest rates declined from cyclical highs. We have reached an official bear market in stocks with a 20% decline from the peak reached…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

June 21, 2022 - 1 min read

The Fed remains behind the curve and is more hawkish than three months ago. The Federal Reserve continued its move to a much more hawkish position last week. They moved managed interest rates up 75 basis points. This is the third such move since March with each move more than the previous one. This is a total of…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

June 7, 2022 - 1 min read

The economic data reported continues to reflect solid overall growth. The May labor market report came in better than expected. Non-farm payrolls grew by 390,000, well above the non-farm forecast of 325,000. Growth was in all sectors except retailing, so it was a broad-based report. The 60,700 decline in retailing jobs reflects the shift in…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

June 1, 2022 - 1 min read

Final demand has remained strong through May in spite of higher inflation fears. Despite the surge in inflation, the personal spending and income data from April was strong. Personal consumption expenditures grew by 0.9% for the first month of the second quarter. Even after adjusting for higher prices, consumer spending increased by 0.7% and is…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

May 24, 2022 - 1 min read

Economic activity is still strong even as investors fear the worse. While financial markets have been highly volatile, economic fundamentals have remained consistently solid. They are expected to remain solid with the data due out this week. The issue is not current conditions, but the risk economic conditions will deteriorate in the next six months….

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ProBank Austin Advisor

May 16, 2022 - 1 min read

Inflation data from last week was lower than the huge increases in March. The Fed is between a rock and a hard place. They no longer have confidence in their forecasts as they have been wrong consistently for the past two years. They are at a point where they are going to need hard evidence…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

May 9, 2022 - 1 min read

The Fed did raise rates as expected but limited further moves to 50 basis points. Capital markets are always driven by one of three emotions. It is either greed (an overpriced market), fear (an underpriced market) or apathy (fair value). These emotions are a function of investors’ views of the future economic fundamentals. Currently, the…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

May 2, 2022 - 1 min read

The FOMC is expected to move more aggressively this week. The FOMC meets this week with expectations they will continue the process of changing monetary policy. They are forecast to raise managed rates by 50 basis points and announce the speed and timing of shrinking their balance sheet. This easing of accommodative policy is being…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

April 25, 2022 - 1 min read

The wealth of economic data due out this week will impact forecasts going forward. Many forecasters believe the inflation is peaking and will begin to moderate in the coming months. This forecast is based on a slowing of real consumption spending as inflation reduces the real spending by both consumers and corporations. They also believe…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

April 18, 2022 - 1 min read

Inflation data was huge, but we expect it to represent a peak in the data. Market interest rates moved much higher last week as the inflation data for March surged again. That data does mean the Fed will move managed rates up a full 50 basis points at their meeting the first week in May….

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ProBank Austin Advisor

April 11, 2022 - 1 min read

The inversion in the curve was eliminated with the news from last week. The bond market was driven by comments made by Fed members and the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. The tone of the speeches made last week by five Fed governors was very hawkish. Strong indications of a 50-basis…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

April 4, 2022 - 1 min read

The interest rate curve has inverted but we do not forecast a recession will follow. Many forecasters have placed great significance on the inversion of the yield curve last week. The inversion was between intermediate and longer-term bonds. The yield on the two-year ended the week at a 2.44% yield while the ten-year ended at…

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