Articles

ProBank Austin Advisor

February 18, 2019 - 1 min read

We might have been off not getting any more data than what was released last week. Government agencies which were shut down are now trying to play catch-up with economic data releases. The Commerce Department was one such agency. They released retail sales for December last week, which was one month later than normal. If…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

February 11, 2019 - 1 min read

The re-opening of government has allowed some data to begin to be released. We are finally starting to get some important data that had been delayed with the partial government shutdown. Retail sales for December are expected to be released this week for December. This is a month later than it was due. Expectations are…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

February 4, 2019 - 1 min read

We still lack data to determine how final demand is reacting to political uncertainty. The Labor Department was fully funded during the government shut down and was able to release the employment report for January. The data was affected by the method used to calculate the unemployment rate . It went up to 4.0% from…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

January 30, 2019 - 1 min read

The disruption in the release of data makes forecasting much more difficult. Very little new data was released last week as financial markets were driven by earnings releases. Those releases were generally better than expected with the large banks being the best. This week will see some market moving data but not enough to affect…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

January 22, 2019 - 1 min read

Markets have moved on only a rumor of positive news. Volatility works both ways. So far this year, the volatility has been positive. The S&P 500 is up 6.5% this month. Market interest rates have risen. The yield on the two-year treasury was up 9 basis points last week and 12 bp since the beginning…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

January 14, 2019 - 1 min read

A partial government shut-down is disrupting the release of data adding to uncertainty. The partial government shutdown is affecting the release of data investors rely on to determine the condition of the economy. The trade data from November was not released last week and the retail sales due out this week will not be available….

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ProBank Austin Advisor

January 7, 2019 - 1 min read

The employment report was a huge surprise and calmed fears of a recession. The risks being priced into both stock and bond markets include a slowing of economic growth in 2019 and no increase in inflation . Those risks were reduced with the release of the December labor report last Friday. Nonfarm payrolls increased by…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

January 3, 2019 - 1 min read

The yield curve has steepened since the Fed moved two weeks ago. The fear investors had about a possible inversion of the yield curve did not develop after the last Fed increase two weeks ago. In fact, the yield curve steepened slightly after the December FOMC meeting . The spread between the two-year and ten-year…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

December 28, 2018 - 1 min read

Financial markets are now discounting a recession in 2019. I feel like a pair of brown shoes in a tuxedo world. I am out of touch with every investor and many other forecasters. The buying of last month has been done on Amazon and not in stocks. Financial markets are always dominated by one of…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

December 10, 2018 - 1 min read

The yield curve flattened even more as long rates declined more than short rates. Investors do not care about the economic data being reported. They are only focused on the trade tension between the U.S. and China. The fundamental economic data continues to reflect a solid expansion is still in place. Job growth was slower…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

December 6, 2018 - 1 min read

Financial markets will be driven by two major events in the last week. Two major events occurred in the past week which will drive financial asset pricing this week. The first was the speech by Fed Chairman Powell . In that speech he changed his assessment of current monetary policy. In the first week of…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

November 26, 2018 - 1 min read

The housing market improved in October but remains well below fundamental levels. One important sector of the economy continues to post weak monthly data. The existing home sales and housing starts data from last week reported small rebounds from what has been a slowing market. Existing home sales are down 5.1% in the past year….

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