As we sit here in mid-July, it is difficult to predict with any certainty where the economy is headed as we close out the year and move into 2020. The futures market currently seems all but certain that a Fed rate cut of 25 basis points at month-end is a given (with the chance of…
read article →As Q1 earnings release and annual shareholders’ meetings begin wrapping up, I’ve been approached by a few banks asking if I wouldn’t mind re-running a piece I first prepared a few years ago. The requests seemed to largely center on the desire to share with their management teams and/or directors the views of an objective…
read article →There is an old Wall Street saying that “Bull Markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” Clearly market volatility has picked up in recent months, as competing sentiments regarding uncertainty over global trade tensions and the potential implications of a chaotic Brexit duel with continued low unemployment…
read article →For most folks in Detroit, they will probably never know that TCF stands for Twin Cities Federal, an old thrift institution with its roots in Minnesota. Or that TCF nearly failed in the mid-‘80s, before being resuscitated and rebuilt into a formidable operation by a disciplined and creative CEO with roots in Michigan’s banking community…
read article →The second half of 2018 saw a litany of items fueling uncertainty in the markets as the year closed out and the federal government shut down. In no particular order: Rising rates further flattened the yield curve and raised the specter of a possible recession-predicting inversion of the short and long ends of the curve;…
read article →As year-end 2018 rapidly approaches, I was looking at the landscape of Michigan’s banks across different asset-size classes. In past monthlies, I have sometimes opined on changes to this landscape, particularly as some of the state’s largest entities like NBD, First of America, Old Kent, Michigan National, etc. were merged out of existence. At the…
read article →There has been much commentary of late concerning the Federal Reserve’s perceived independence and the central bank’s ability to enact policy decisions amidst political rhetoric and fears that the current rate-raising campaign by the Fed could inadvertently short-circuit economic growth. In late September, the Fed raised its benchmark rate another 25 basis points, marking the…
read article →Recently two snippets from a well-known banking industry daily publication caught my eye. One simply focused on the number of banks in the United States concentrated in Commercial Real Estate (CRE) loans, while the other was titled “Financial Regulators Clarify Guidance Is Not Regulation.” Both, for me, served to coalesce around a prudent, best-practices approach…
read article →Eno to Keene. Connor to Waldron. Palmer to Daust. Mann to Schaible. Lueth to Bitzer. Ward to Oldford. Eichler to Snider. These are just a few of the management transitions in process across the Michigan banking sector. Some involve the assumption of full CEO responsibilities, while others set the stage by designating the President’s title…
read article →This will not be an economic treatise on the current shape of the yield curve, nor on the prognosis nor probability of a recession. There have been more than enough articles written in recent months (and more surely to come) opining on the continued flattening of the curve as short rates have moved higher with…
read article →I’m thinking that coming off the Fed meeting last week, the last thing you need or want is to read the 80th-odd treatise on the recent rate hike, and another analyst pontificating on inflation, unemployment, the shape of the yield curve, etc. Quite simply, the recent increase to the Fed’s benchmark rate, coupled with Chairman…
read article →Recall a couple of months ago that we opined on passage in the Senate of the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act, or in shorthand, S.2155. While the opportunity to move forward on some key components of regulatory reform coupled with the sense of a more “supportive tone” toward the banking industry coming from…
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