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ProBank Austin Advisor

September 10, 2018 - 1 min read

Economic data released last week was strong with rising inflation risks affecting markets Any doubts as to whether the surge in consumption reported for the second quarter can continue in the third quarter is quickly being eliminated with data being released. The labor market report for August reported last Friday was a solid number. It…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

August 20, 2018 - 1 min read

Risks to financial markets were reduced last week The concern by investors has been twofold in the last month. First, the risk that the economy was going to slow from the strong second quarter growth was reduced last week with the release of July retail sales . Overall, sales were reported as having increased by…

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Seamless Transitions the Order of the Day

August 20, 2018 - 4 min read

Eno to Keene.  Connor to Waldron.  Palmer to Daust.  Mann to Schaible.  Lueth to Bitzer.  Ward to Oldford.  Eichler to Snider.  These are just a few of the management transitions in process across the Michigan banking sector. Some involve the assumption of full CEO responsibilities, while others set the stage by designating the President’s title…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

August 6, 2018 - 1 min read

All of the data released last week strengthens the probability of a rate increase in September The wealth of data released last week continues to point to a strong rebound in growth still in place. The labor market remains tight even with nonfarm payroll growth in July at 157,000, well below the results of May…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

July 31, 2018 - 1 min read

Real GDP came in as expected while the components indicate a strong recovery will continue The headline number for second quarter economic growth came as expected but for much different reasons than forecast. The Advance Report for Real GDP resulted in 4.1% growth over the first quarter with the consensus forecast calling for 4.2%. This…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

July 23, 2018 - 1 min read

Second quarter Real GDP to be released this week should confirm the strength of monthly data Another set of solid economic data was recorded last week. Retail sales were reported as having increased by 0.5% in June. That follows a revised 1.3% growth in May. The upward revision for May means personal consumption growth in…

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All Eyes Are On The Yield Curve

July 17, 2018 - 6 min read

This will not be an economic treatise on the current shape of the yield curve, nor on the prognosis nor probability of a recession.  There have been more than enough articles written in recent months (and more surely to come) opining on the continued flattening of the curve as short rates have moved higher with…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

July 2, 2018 - 1 min read

The risks of an expanding trade war is overwhelming the economic fundamentals Investors are paying attention to the economic data but are focused on the looming trade war. Stock prices have been declining and bond prices have been rising as capital flows from stocks into bonds. The imposition of tariffs will result in slower economic…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

June 25, 2018 - 2 min read

The yield curve flattened further last week as the risk of a spreading trade war is driving prices The economic data continues to come in above expectations and well above the level of the first quarter. None of this data is driving financial markets. Investors are more concerned about the escalating trade war that has…

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Using a Closing Disclosure to Reset Tolerance

June 1, 2018 - 1 min read

(CFPB Revises TRID to Remove the “Black Hole”) Effective June 1, 2018 The Truth-in-Lending/RESPA integrated disclosure (TRID) rule requires creditors to provide consumers with good faith estimates of the loan terms and closing costs on a Loan Estimate. Under the rule, an estimated closing cost is disclosed in good faith if the charge paid by…

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