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ProBank Austin Advisor

August 8, 2022 - 1 min read

The jobs report and new fiscal stimulus makes the Fed’s job more difficult. The labor market report for July was a huge surprise with some conflicting data. The corporate survey reported growth of jobs of 528,000, more than double expectations. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%, a fifty-year low. On the surface this report reflects…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

August 1, 2022 - 1 min read

Second quarter advance report of a negative number raises debate about recession. The advance report for second quarter Real GDP was released as a drop of 0.9%. This is the second consecutive quarter of negative growth. For some, this is the popular definition of a recession. For others, it is not a recession since the…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

July 25, 2022 - 1 min read

Investors will be dealing with conflicting data and the Fed this week. A wealth of data will be released this week, giving investors evidence of the direction of the U.S. economy. The biggest data point will be the Advance report of second quarter Real GDP. The consensus forecast calls for growth of only 0.5% following…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

July 18, 2022 - 1 min read

Inflation data remains high with no sign of it easing yet. The inflation data from last week did not give any indication it was peaking as many had hoped. The CPI was up 1.3% for the month driving the YOY increase up to 9.1% from 8.6%. The core rate was up 0.7% for the month…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

July 11, 2022 - 1 min read

Solid job growth makes a recession less likely. In order to enter a recession, employment must decline along with final consumption. The labor market report for June released last week gave no indication employment is heading towards a drop. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 372,000 for the month. The April and May data was revised downward…

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Loan Growth Improves for Mutuals During Q1 ‘22

July 6, 2022 - 2 min read

First quarter 2022 data indicate that loan growth trends improved for mutuals throughout the nation, including Midwest- and Ohio-based mutuals.  Total loans during the quarter grew by 2.9 percent for mutuals nationwide compared with one percent for all of 2021.  For Midwest-based mutuals, total loans during the first quarter of 2022 increased modestly by 1.8…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

July 6, 2022 - 1 min read

The data last week does give fuel to those expecting a recession in the second half. Those forecasters who are claiming or predicting we are in or close to entering a recession got plenty of data last week. Personal spending only increased 0.2% in May. After adjusting for inflation, real spending declined for the first…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

June 28, 2022 - 1 min read

Investors fear a recession but the data does not signal that yet. Volatility in financial markets does go both ways. Stock prices moved higher last week, bouncing off cyclical lows and market interest rates declined from cyclical highs. We have reached an official bear market in stocks with a 20% decline from the peak reached…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

June 21, 2022 - 1 min read

The Fed remains behind the curve and is more hawkish than three months ago. The Federal Reserve continued its move to a much more hawkish position last week. They moved managed interest rates up 75 basis points. This is the third such move since March with each move more than the previous one. This is a total of…

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CECLAdvisorPRO® Solutions Is Your Institution Prepared for 2023?

June 20, 2022 - 1 min read

CECL is expected to greatly impact both financial and non-financial institutions, including the technological, operational, and reporting mechanisms necessary to support full implementation. Our CECL AdvisorPRO® team can guide your institution through this process by assisting with data collection, loan pool segmentation, quarterly parallel runs up to implementation, and more. And, if you already have…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

June 14, 2022 - 1 min read

The Fed meets this week and is expected to raise managed rates by at least 50 basis points. There is growing pressure for an even larger increase as inflation data has not indicated any slowdown or peaking of price increases. We could get a 75 bp move considering the CPI data released last week. The…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

June 7, 2022 - 1 min read

The economic data reported continues to reflect solid overall growth. The May labor market report came in better than expected. Non-farm payrolls grew by 390,000, well above the non-farm forecast of 325,000. Growth was in all sectors except retailing, so it was a broad-based report. The 60,700 decline in retailing jobs reflects the shift in…

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