The FOMC meets this week and will need to deal with the conflicting data. The believability of data from the first quarter continues to be a problem. The Advance Report of first quarter Real GDP growth was released on Friday. The economy grew at 3.2%, the fastest growth in the first quarter in the past…
read article →Better consumer spending data and a lower trade deficit should propel growth. The data being released continues to send mixed signals. Last week it was the retail sales numbers. The economy has been thought to be slowing due to a weak consumption side. Retail sales were reported as having declined by a revised 2.1% in…
read article →Data is finally catching up and appears to confirm February was the anomaly. The flat yield curve has been created by the Fed raising short-term rates over the past three years while investors have not demanded a risk premium for higher inflation. The Fed was trying to normalize monetary policy which is their way of…
read article →The data released last week lowered the risks of recession this year. The risk of a looming recession was eased with the release of data last week. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 196,000 for March. The consensus expectation was for an increase of 170,000. This increase was below the monthly average of the past year but…
read article →Which financial market has it right as stocks move up and interest rates move down? The final numbers are in for the fourth quarter. Real GDP growth was revised down to only 2.2% from 2.6% released in the first report. Consumption across the board was revised downward. Personal consumption expenditures were revised down from 2.8%…
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read article →The FOMC added to those already forecasting a recession late this year. The sky is falling! That is the conclusion reached by investors last week. The FOMC lowered its growth expectations for the U.S. economy from what had already been a weak forecast at prior meetings. The Fed also removed any guidance for further changes…
read article →Status: Pending Lead Advisor: Rick Maroney
read article →There is an old Wall Street saying that “Bull Markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” Clearly market volatility has picked up in recent months, as competing sentiments regarding uncertainty over global trade tensions and the potential implications of a chaotic Brexit duel with continued low unemployment…
read article →The Fed meets this week with no expectation of a change in monetary policy. The FOMC meets this week with continued uncertainty over economic data. Last week saw a wealth of data released, much of which was confusing. For example, retail sales were released for January and were reported as having increased by 0.2%. The…
read article →All of the data released only served to call into question the reliability of that data. The question of what to believe was raised again last week with the important release of the February labor data. The unemployment rate dropped by 0.2% to 3.8%. The decline was a function of a decrease of 300,000 in…
read article →A requirement of the “L” component of the CAMELS rating system is for financial institutions to have independent, third-party reviews of their liquidity risk management. An institution’s liquidity management process should ensure that daily funding needs are met and provide coverage for both expected and unexpected deviations from normal operations. Accordingly, an institution should have…
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