Articles

ProBank Austin Advisor

March 15, 2022 - 1 min read

Inflation pressures will remain high with the rise in commodity markets from the war. The focus of investors will shift from the war in Ukraine to the domestic monetary policy changes at least for one day. The FOMC meets this Tuesday and Wednesday and is expected to raise the target rate for Fed Funds by…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

March 8, 2022 - 1 min read

Inflation pressures will remain high with the rise in commodity markets from the war. A disconnect between economic fundamentals and valuations in financial assets creates difficulty for any forecasts. The economic data continues to come in stronger than most expectations. Nonfarm payrolls grew by 678,000 in February, well above expectations. The unemployment rate dropped to…

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This Surreal Time-Warp Continues…

March 3, 2022 - 10 min read

About a week ago I sat down to begin organizing some thoughts for this Michigan Monthly. Candidly, I had intended upon shifting slightly from all the talk about inflation and Fed interest rate hikes, and simply touch on a topic we have visited a few times over the years: branch networks. I thought ongoing branch…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

February 28, 2022 - 1 min read

The war in Ukraine adds to the wall of worry investors are facing. The wall of worry just gets higher. The attack of Russia into Ukraine adds war to pandemic, inflation and growth uncertainty to factors driving volatility in all financial markets. The war in eastern Europe will disrupt the flow of foreign trade making…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

February 22, 2022 - 1 min read

The risk of war in Europe has increased as has uncertainty about its impact. The risk of war in eastern Europe may have replaced the virus as the biggest worry for investors. The infection rate of the virus continues to drop each week and indications are it will continue to do so. One article said…

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LoanPricingPRO® Quarterly Newsletter

February 16, 2022 - 1 min read

Most large banks book negative provisions in Q4’21 A strong economy and near-pristine credit quality enabled large U.S. banks to book negative provisions in the 2021 fourth quarter.  

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ProBank Austin Advisor

February 14, 2022 - 1 min read

Now we have added the risk of war to every other issue bond investors fear. As if we did not have enough uncertainty for investors to worry about, we have added the possibility of a war in the Ukraine. About the only thing left is an invasion of locusts. The bond market was driven by…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

February 7, 2022 - 1 min read

Labor market data has caught up with observed strength in the last six months. It is usually a mistake to make long-term asset allocation decisions based on one or two months data. Such has been the case with the labor market reports in the last three months. The Labor Department had reported a significant slowdown…

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YE ’21 Trend Lines In Holding Pattern For Mutuals Nationwide

February 4, 2022 - 2 min read

Mutual peer data for 2021 reflected “more of the same” especially in terms of loan growth, expense management and net income. Loan growth for all of 2021 grew at a paltry rate of one percent for mutuals nationwide, 1.3 percent for mutuals based in the Midwest and 2.3 percent for Ohio-based mutuals. From an expense…

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ProBank Austin Advisor

February 1, 2022 - 1 min read

Economic data was strong, and the Fed has become more hawkish. The Advance Report for fourth quarter Real GDP was much stronger than expected. Growth was reported as having increased by 6.9%, well above the consensus forecast of 5.5%. Personal consumption expenditures grew by 3.3%, up from the 2.0% growth in the third quarter. The…

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