The debate over recession has not been settled with data in the last month.

The debate as to whether we are already in a recession or are about to fall into one continues to drive the volatility in capital markets. The data from last week did not help settle the issue. The Leading Indicators have a very good track record over the last fifty years in predicting the direction of the economy. It was reported as having dropped by 0.4% in July and is down back to the levels from one year ago. It has declined in six of the last seven months. The housing data continues to reflect the weakness in new construction and sales have not reached a base level yet. Retail sales which are not adjusted for inflation, were reported as unchanged in July after the huge jump reported for June. There was offsetting data.

 

PROBANK AUSTIN ADVISOR - AUGUST 22, 2022