Solid job growth makes a recession less likely.

In order to enter a recession, employment must decline along with final consumption. The labor market report for June released last week gave no indication employment is heading towards a drop. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 372,000 for the month. The April and May data was revised downward which leaves the three-month average growth at 375,000. The JOLTS report continues to indicate a huge number of unfilled job openings above 11 million with only 3 million people reporting as unemployed but seeking work. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6% but the U-6 data reported a drop to 6.7% from 7.1% for those working including part-time.

 

PROBANK AUSTIN ADVISOR - JULY 11, 2022