The data last week does give fuel to those expecting a recession in the second half.

Those forecasters who are claiming or predicting we are in or close to entering a recession got plenty of data last week. Personal spending only increased 0.2% in May. After adjusting for inflation, real spending declined for the first time in the last five months. The first quarter Real GDP was revised down with a large revision in the level of personal consumption expenditures. They were moved from 3.1% to 1.8% for the quarter. The ISM Index was reported as having dropped 4.4% for the month of June after declining 5.0% in May.

 

PROBANK AUSTIN ADVISOR - JULY 5, 2022