Inflation data was huge, but we expect it to represent a peak in the data.

Market interest rates moved much higher last week as the inflation data for March surged again. That data does mean the Fed will move managed rates up a full 50 basis points at their meeting the first week in May. The yield on the ten-year treasury moved above 2.80% while the two-year remained below 2.50%. There is a positive slope to the curve with the TED spread at +38 bp. The elimination of the inverted curve of two weeks ago began with the Fed minutes from the March meeting where they indicated they would begin to shrink the balance sheet by $95 billion a month beginning in May.

 

PROBANK AUSTIN ADVISOR - APRIL 18, 2022