More uncertainty was injected into the bond market with the release of the FOMC minutes.

The Fed is caught between a rock and hard place. They are trying to navigate between accommodative monetary policy to promote full employment and neutral monetary policy to address the surge in inflation. It does not help when we get mixed signals from the labor market. The data released last Friday reported a drop in the unemployment rate to 3.9% from 4.2% in November while nonfarm payrolls were reported as having increased by only 199,000. This would be the slowest rate of growth in jobs since January 2021. However, the household survey reported those employed increased by 651,000 in December. This is the second consecutive month of a large difference in the two surveys. The corporate survey used to calculate the nonfarm payrolls has been considered more reliable than the household survey used to calculate the unemployment rate.

 

PROBANK AUSTIN ADVISOR - JANUARY 10, 2022