We start the year with many uncertainties which must be monitored to make forecasts.

The year ends with as many uncertainties as it began with. Everything is centered around the spread and severity of the virus. The surge in infections has already begun to impact economic activity. The initial impact is keeping people from working. The travel industry has been impacted with a shortage of workers due to the omicron variant spreading rapidly. Those infected are not able to work which keeps the service sector of the economy from operating at full strength. It has not impacted consumer spending yet with people still willing to gather to celebrate the holidays. We expect it will dampen service sector demand as we move into January.