Risks have moved to how strong will the economy be going forward.

The pressure on intermediate and long-term market interest rates continued last week. We begin this week with the yield on the ten-year treasury at 1.60%. That is 100 basis points higher than it was as recently as November and is up 50 bp from the beginning of February. The five-year is at 0.85% yield, up from 35 bp in November and 55 bp at the beginning of February. The two-year is at 0.16%, only up from 0.11% over the same time frame. The TED spread stands at 145 bp while it was less than 50 bp in November, and negative one year ago.