No change from the Fed’s prior monetary policy positions is expected this week.

The FOMC meets this week.  They will have the Advance report for fourth quarter Real GDP even as it is not released to the public until the next day.  The consensus forecast calls for growth of 4.2% for the quarter after the 33.4% growth reported for the third quarter.  Our forecast has been for growth of 1.7% for the fourth quarter.  The difference is our forecast for personal consumption expenditures is well below the consensus.  We base our forecast on the partial closing of service sector consumer opportunities as the spread of the virus accelerated in the last half of the quarter.

 

PROBANK AUSTIN ADVISOR - JANUARY 25, 2021