Stronger data last week and expected this week does not mean anything if the virus continues to surge.

The U.S. economy has experienced a strong rebound from the low point reached in April. This rebound was evident last week with a strong recovery in the JOLTS data, solid industrial production led by a surge in manufacturing, and continued recovery in retail sales. However, the strong monthly growth being reported still leaves economic activity well below the levels of 2019. The JOLTS data is still down 18% over the last twelve months. Retail sales are up 2.7% YOY but is in question as the recent surge in the virus may require the closing of some businesses.