May was much stronger than expected but the questions about continued rebounds remain.

The timing and strength have surprised most forecasters, including the Fed. The data for May was much better than expected only six weeks ago. The re-opening of the economy has been much faster than anticipated, however, the strength being reported for May does not get Real GDP anywhere near the level it was before the virus shutdown. The strong job growth reported for May does not get employment anywhere near the levels reported prior to the shutdown. It is clear there was significant pent-up demand from over two months of shutdown. Retail sales and personal spending surged during May.

 

PROBANK AUSTIN ADVISOR - JUNE 29, 2020