This will be an important week for economic data with retail sales and manufacturing data due out.

The economy continues to re-open sooner than was assumed in many forecasts. Most forecasters assumed the shut-down would continue through June. Now that we are moving sooner than expected, economic data must improve by large amounts and not just be less bad than prior months. A good example is the retail sales data due out this week. Sales declined by 11.7% in April from the lower levels reported for March. The consensus calls for a rebound from the April lows of 7.5% for May. That is a good start, but it does not get the economy back to pre-virus levels.