The data from April continues to be terrible but May looks better.

While this is not the last of the terrible economic data, we are near the end of the worse. The key data this week is consumer confidence due out on Tuesday. This reading of consumer sentiment dropped by more than 30 points in April as we were in the middle of the shutdown with no clear end in sight. The reading due to this week is from two weeks ago and parts of the economy were beginning to open, and plans were being announced for the timing of opening more parts over the next two weeks. Expectations are this change will cause a rise in consumer attitudes and an increase in confidence. This data will be key to the magnitude of recovery we experience as people return to work, retailing opens somewhat, and social activities begin. The consensus only calls for the index to move up to 88 from 86.9, but we are early in the opening phase.

 

PROBANK AUSTIN ADVISOR - MAY 26, 2020