The April data being released is as bad as the worst forecasts expected.

There is little reason to spend time on the economic data being released for April. The unemployment rate jumped to levels not experienced since 1940 and even this 14.8% rate is probably understated. The survey was taken in the middle of April with job losses continuing through month end. The U6 rate was over 22% and is a better reflection of the damage being done by the virus crisis. The loss of jobs is also unstated for the same reason. The retail sales decline expected this week, the auto sales data for April released last week and the industrial production data due this week all are at historically low levels.

 

PROBANK AUSTIN ADVISOR - MAY 11, 2020