We are resuming issuing our economic forecast as conditions become clearer.
There is no way to describe the carnage to the economy from the coronavirus pandemic. The data for economic conditions being released for April is unprecedented. The Advance report for Real GDP in the first quarter indicated a decline of 4.8%. This was despite economic growth of better than 3% in the first two months of the quarter. The last month of the quarter was so bad that the quarterly growth ended down by the largest quarterly decline since 2008. The second quarter estimates are in the -30% to -40% range. There has never been a period like the one being reported currently.
PROBANK AUSTIN ADVISOR - MAY 5, 2020