Economic data continues to be shocking but fully expected.
The issue is not how bad is the economic data from March, the issue is the pace of restarting the economy. At this point, it appears it will be a rolling restart with parts of the economy allowed to restart in some parts of the country in the next month. Some parts will not restart and in some areas of the country, the entire economy will continue to be restricted. This kind of condition means it will be very difficult to experience a “V” shaped recovery. Even if we were able to restart fully by May 31, it is questionable as to how consumer spending will rebound.
PROBANK AUSTIN ADVISOR - APRIL 27, 2020