The data from last week and expected this week confirms our forecast for growth.

Our forecast has called for Real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2019 to be 2.3%. The consensus forecast had been for less than 2% growth. That would be below the 2.1% and 2.0% reported for the second and third quarters. The factors causing our forecast to be above the consensus included continued growth in PCE of better than 3%, positive contribution from capital spending , and a narrowing of the trade deficit. The data for November and December released to date does support these expectations. The trade deficit for November was released last week and was reported as having narrowed to -$43.09 billion. This was the lowest deficit since October 2016. In addition, the October deficit was revised down.

 

PROBANK AUSTIN ADVISOR - JANUARY 13, 2020