Just when old uncertainties declined a new one appears to threaten growth.

A new uncertainty for investors to worry about surfaces as the old one’s fade. Conflict in the Middle-East now threatens to escalate and disrupt oil markets. While trade issues have declined with the passage of the USMCA and a phase one agreement with China , the impeachment process going nowhere, and economic data strong enough to reduce the risk of recession, a war in the Middle-East would offset those gains. Both stock and bond prices reacted to the Middle-East tensions with stocks down and bonds up in price. This news was received during a period in which little new economic data was being issued. The data that was released last week did little to indicate the economy was accelerating. The ISM Index did not rebound as was expected and continues to point to weak manufacturing growth in 2020.

 

PROBANK AUSTIN ADVISOR - JANUARY 6, 2020