Confusion was heightened with the release of data last week.

Fuel for those anticipating a recession was provided last week. Retail sales were reported as having dropped by 0.3% for the month of September. For those forecasting a recession in the next twelve months this was viewed as proof the consumer has slowed spending. Consumer spending is 70% of Real GDP so any slowdown in this sector would lead to a downturn in the economy. The trade deficit has widened and remains a large drag on domestic growth.

 

PROBANK AUSTIN ADVISOR - OCTOBER 21, 2019