A new uncertainty, impeachment, has now been added to existing risks.

On top of the uncertainties cited by the Fed in their decision to cut managed interest rates in the last two months, we are now dealing with political instability with impeachment proceedings. None of this can be good for either business or consumer confidence. It is the growth in consumer final demand that has driven the continuation of the expansion in the past two years. That growth has been fueled by strong job growth and solid increases in incomes. Strong job growth is now in question. The monthly average increase in nonfarm payrolls has slowed to 154,000 in the first eight months of this year after growing by 224,000 per month in 2018. The consensus forecast calls for growth of 145,000 for this week’s data for September.

 

PROBANK AUSTIN ADVISOR - SEPTEMBER 30, 2019