A huge jump in market interest rates has occurred driven by foreign economic changes.

If there was any doubt the U.S. bond market is being driven by factors outside the U.S., it was dispelled in the last two weeks. The yield on the ten-year treasury has risen by 41 basis points since its low on August 28. It closed last Friday at a 1.90% yield after closing at 1.49% on the 28th. The yield on the two-year closed at a 1.79% yield after closing at 1.42% on the 28th. The spread between the two and ten-year is positive by 11 basis points after the inverted curve in late August. During the last two weeks, economic data has been generally weaker than the results of the first half of the year. Job growth is above the level needed to keep the unemployment rate near historical lows but is down from the last two years.

 

PROBANK AUSTIN ADVISOR - SEPTEMBER 16, 2019