The inverted yield curve has only gotten wider as fears of recession grow.

Another week of solid economic data, volatile stock markets and declines in market interest rates. The trade war with China continues to drive investors towards an expectation of recession as a result of tariffs and weak global growth. As yet, those fears have not been reflected in the economic data. New tariffs take affect today and this should cause financial markets to react. This is in spite of China not reacting by imposing new tariffs on our goods and some increased hope of new discussions with them. The data last week was as expected with consumer final demand reported as strong in July as personal consumption expenditures increased by 0.6%.