Retail sales for July due out this Thursday will be a key data point for monetary policy.

Volatility in financial markets continues to be stoked by a lack of progress on trade agreements,political instability in China and fears of a slowing economy. Global economic growth is slowing with few tools remaining to stimulate in Europe or Japan. The risk is this weakness will spread to the U.S. economy. There is little evidence this is happening. This week the key data to be released is the retail sales data for July. Retail sales were reported as having increased by 0.4% in June. The control group within the sales data that is used to calculate personal consumption expenditures in the Real GDP report were up a huge 0.7% in June. That contributed to the 4.3% rate of growth in PCE in the second quarter.

 

PROBANK AUSTIN ADVISOR - AUGUST 12, 2019