The FOMC meets this week with widespread expectations of a rate cut.

The Federal Open Market Committee meets this week with the bond market already pricing in a cut in managed rates. We do not believe that will happen. The key data piece was released last Friday. Retail sales were up 0.5% for the month of May and April’s data was revised upward from a decline of 0.2% to an increase of 0.3%. The control group, which is the data used to calculate personal consumption expenditures for the Real GDP report, was also up 0.5% for May and April’s data was revised up to a +0.4% number. The result of this data is second quarter Real GDP forecasts will be revised upward as consumer final demand improved from the first quarter growth of only 1.3% annualized.