The FOMC meets this week and will need to deal with the conflicting data.

The believability of data from the first quarter continues to be a problem. The Advance Report of first quarter Real GDP growth was released on Friday. The economy grew at 3.2%, the fastest growth in the first quarter in the past four years. Normally, a surprise of this kind would have caused market interest rates to rise since it would free up the Fed to continue its program of normalizing monetary policy by raising managed rates. Instead, market interest rates declined on the news as investors focused on the components driving this growth. Personal consumption expenditures , 70% of the economy, only expanded by 1.2% in the quarter.

 

PROBANK AUSTIN ADVISOR - APRIL 29, 2019