Data is finally catching up and appears to confirm February was the anomaly.

The flat yield curve has been created by the Fed raising short-term rates over the past three years while investors have not demanded a risk premium for higher inflation. The Fed was trying to normalize monetary policy which is their way of saying low unemployment could lead to higher inflation. The Fed gave up its efforts in December as inflation was not moving higher even as unemployment was declining. The inflation from last week for March was the first time in more than two years markets were surprised on the upside. The CPI was reported as having increased by 0.4% for the month.

 

PROBANK AUSTIN ADVISOR - APRIL 15, 2019