The data released last week lowered the risks of recession this year.

The risk of a looming recession was eased with the release of data last week. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 196,000 for March. The consensus expectation was for an increase of 170,000. This increase was below the monthly average of the past year but is close to the monthly average of the past three years. There has been huge volatility in this data in the first three months of the year with Januarys increase at 312,000, February at 33,000 and March at 196,000. The March data does make the February report look like an anomaly affected by data collection problems from the government shutdown and perhaps the weather.

 

PROBANK AUSTIN ADVISOR - APRIL 8, 2019